The institutional stalemate, a familiar occurrence in French politics, has once again taken center stage. François Bayrou, who assumed the prime ministership on December 13, 2024, replacing Michel Barnier in the shadow of a budget crisis, met a similar fate before completing his tenth month in office. The Bayrou government was toppled after failing to secure a vote of confidence following intense budgetary debates in the National Assembly. This development once again reveals that the tradition of “toppling the government” in France has turned into a vicious cycle, creating deep political instability when combined with the country’s chronic budget deficit problem. In this commentary, I will attempt to assess the recent developments in France.
The Carnival of Macronism and the Public Debt Spiral
Yunus Emre’s famous adage, “A word may stop a war, a word may cost a head,” may be one of the most fitting ways to make sense of the volatile nature of French politics. Emmanuel Macron, who came to power in 2017, promised from day one in office to reduce the public budget deficit and restore France to fiscal discipline. Yet with the irony of fate, even before his two-term tenure is complete, France’s public debt has exceeded the increases experienced during the terms of all his predecessors. Indeed, interest payments on the country’s public debt rose from €35 billion in 2018 to nearly €90 billion as of 2024. This figure exceeds the combined budgets of both the Ministry of National Education and the Ministry of Defense.
Today, France’s public deficit hovers slightly above 5% of GDP, which is significantly over the 3% limit set by the European Union’s Maastricht criteria. Consequently, Macron’s occasional sharp political maneuvers—akin to the proverb “Too much sharpness breaks the point”—further shorten the tenure of prime ministers in the country’s politics. Indeed, the François Bayrou government, which took office on December 13, 2024, was toppled in a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly on September 8, 2025, before completing even one year in office. Furthermore, only 194 deputies stood by Bayrou, compared to 394 “no” votes cast against the government in the ballot. This outcome clearly demonstrates that the Bayrou government was crushed by parliamentary arithmetic. It also reveals that despite the total number of seats belonging to parties supporting Macron and the Republicans (LR), who declared their support for Bayrou, being 198, the Macron camp failed to stand solidly behind its own candidate.
Who Emerged Victorious from the Government Tussle?
The core issue that toppled the François Bayrou government was the austerity measures required for the sustainability of public debt. Bayrou had stated that French finances would face the risk of bankruptcy within five years unless at least €44 billion in cuts were made to the 2026 budget. However, to amass this amount, quite radical measures were proposed, such as suspending a portion of family benefits, reducing the number of public holidays by two days, and curtailing public sector employment.
These measures stood in stark contrast to the political rhetoric of left-leaning parties, particularly the Socialist Party (PS) and La France Insoumise (LFI). Indeed, both parties took a stance in favor of toppling the Bayrou government during the vote of no confidence. Viewed from this perspective, the short-term winners of the government’s collapse were the left-wing parties. However, on a deeper level, the ultimate winner appears to be the far-right National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen.
This is because the PS and LFI had formed the New Popular Front (NFP) following the July 2024 elections, specifically to curb Le Pen’s ascendancy. However, at the current juncture, the fall of the government has further strengthened the RN’s social legitimacy. According to data from the public opinion research company ELABE, 74% of the French public is satisfied with the toppling of the Bayrou government. This figure is 19% points higher than the level of satisfaction measured after the collapse of the Michel Barnier government. Therefore, as confidence in the system diminishes daily, the French public is increasingly seeking an “exit strategy.” In surveys regarding the formation of a new government, 71% of respondents state they would prefer a “technocratic” government, regardless of ideological identities. Strikingly, however, 40% of the public also insists that the RN and its allies must be included in the new government. This situation reveals that the search for a technocratic solution in France is increasingly intertwined with far-right rhetoric, and the RN’s capacity to direct social demands is growing.
A Young Name Before the “Stop Everything” Wind: Sébastien Lecornu
While the dark clouds of political uncertainty hover over Paris, the wind of the “Stop Everything” (Bloquons Tout) movement is preparing to blow through the illuminated streets of the Champs-Élysées. This social wave, jointly supported by the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) and the far-right National Rally (RN), is expected to show its effects nationwide starting tomorrow. Amidst this very atmosphere, while discussions continued over whether Emmanuel Macron would appoint a new prime minister, the young politician Sébastien Lecornu took the prime ministership before those debates even intensified.
Looking at Lecornu’s political career, it is seen that he has held critical roles over the last three years, including Minister of the Armed Forces, Minister for Overseas France, and Minister for Local Authorities. Furthermore, his specialization in public law at Panthéon-Assas University, one of France’s prestigious law schools, provides him with a strong profile in terms of bureaucratic capacity.
Nevertheless, the main discussion regarding Macron’s choice is concentrated precisely at this point. Since the French economy is overshadowed by the risk of bankruptcy, the President’s preference for a figure whose experience lies primarily in foreign policy and law, rather than economics, is causing serious criticism. When examining the demands of the “Stop Everything” movement, it is evident that concrete economic expectations are prominent, such as increasing purchasing power, lowering taxes, ensuring stronger social security in working life, and facilitating the entry of young entrepreneurs into business.
Therefore, the extent to which Macron’s choice of Lecornu can address these demands is unknown. In fact, according to some circles, this choice has the potential to increase social tension rather than reduce it. In this context, the possibility of a new “Yellow Vests” (Gilets Jaunes) movement erupting in France in the coming days has become a serious concern.
Conclusion
The developments witnessed in French politics over the last year once again reveal that the country is on the brink of a deep impasse. The rapid collapse of the François Bayrou government and the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as the new prime minister demonstrate that the institutional structure of the Fifth Republic can no longer sustain the chronic fiscal problems. While the budget deficit grows every year, the Maastricht criteria are being consistently violated, and public debt interest payments have begun to exceed the budgets of core ministries. This situation not only challenges economic sustainability but also paralyzes political decision-making processes.
Parallel to this, deepening social dissatisfaction is transforming into a concrete political mobilization around the “Stop Everything” movement. Demands that directly affect daily life, such as purchasing power, social security, and taxes, show a trajectory different from the priorities of the government. Macron’s preference for a prime minister with a background in foreign policy and law rather than economics, in the face of the economic crisis, risks escalating tensions rather than producing solutions.
The coming period awaits France with stricter austerity measures, rising social protests in response, and a new political climate in which the far-right’s legitimacy is solidified. This process points to a breaking point that will directly affect France’s role within Europe.
This article was first published on the Türkiye Research Foundation’s Turkish website on September 10, 2025.
