In the 21st century, the balance of power is shifting back to the deep waters of the Indo-Pacific. With the global economic and strategic center of gravity shifting to the Indo-Pacific, China’s economic sphere of influence, built through its Belt and Road Initiative, and the USA’s network of alliances, which also includes its allies, have transformed the region into a new security hub. This geography is both the lifeblood of world trade and the birthplace of the fronts of the “new cold war.” On this front, USA-India relations are bringing about a strategic rapprochement against China. India’s role in the region is indispensable for the USA and its allies in balancing and containing China’s rise. However, the interest-based foreign policy approaches adopted during the Trump era took steps that tested this partnership.
The USA Indo-Pacific Strategy
During the Obama administration, the “Pivot to Asia” policy gradually shifted the USA’s focus away from the Middle East and toward Asia. With the strategic transformation that began during Trump’s first term, which viewed China as an explicit strategic threat, the USA abandoned the term “Asia-Pacific” and adopted the concept of the “Indo-Pacific,” constructing a new regional mental map. The most concrete step in this strategy was the renaming of the USA Pacific Command (USPACOM) to the USA Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) in 2018. This move was a military demonstration that the USA was expanding its operational theater to include India. Bringing India into the equation to counterbalance China, the USA began to encircle China with its revived alliances, starting from the west of the Strait of Malacca. Washington’s 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy Report laid the foundation for this approach by characterizing China as a revisionist power and the greatest rival to the USA’s national security.
According to the 2026 National Defense Strategy, the USA is pursuing a deterrence strategy aimed at preventing China from achieving its goals, rather than establishing absolute dominance in the region. The goal of this strategy is to prevent the region from being dominated by China or any other power and to guarantee the USA’s economic and military access to the region. Furthermore, the USA views economic security as the foundation of national security. In this context, the USA aims to reorganize its economic relations with China based on the principle of “de-risking” rather than “decoupling.”
To achieve these goals in the region, the USA has focused on strengthening mechanisms such as the “QUAD” (USA, Japan, Australia, India), the AUKUS alliance, and relations with ASEAN. Strengthening its bilateral relations with countries in the region, the USA is weaving a cage over the region with alliances integrated with its allies. In the USA’s strategy for the region, India is seen as the most critical actor and indispensable partner capable of counterbalancing China’s hegemony in the region.
USA-India Relations in the Indo-Pacific
Established in 2007 but dormant since then, the QUAD began to take center stage again in 2017. For the USA and its allies, India is the most important regional power capable of counterbalancing China. The main reason for the USA supporting India is to lighten its own security burden. The Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) initiative within the QUAD has made India’s regional power even more important. India forms the geopolitical foundation of the QUAD, encircling and counterbalancing China from the south. In this way, it limits China’s naval power and regional influence on land.
India, together with the US and other partners, is at the center of efforts to create alternatives to China-centric supply chains. Under the QUAD umbrella and bilaterally with the US (iCETand TRUST), India is ensuring the creation of reliable supply chains for semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and 5G/6G technologies. This creates a technological containment of China. Furthermore, the Mining Security Partnership combines India’s production capacity and the QUAD’s investment power to ensure supply security against China’s monopoly on rare earth elements. This move embodies the “procurement from friendly countries” doctrine against China’s potential to use critical minerals as a weapon.
The USA views India as a security provider in the Indian Ocean and wants to transfer the task of countering the Chinese navy west of the Strait of Malacca to India. Furthermore, by supporting India’s rise, the US is confronting China with a two-pronged threat (the USA and Japan in the East, India in the Southwest). This both divides China’s resources and facilitates the USA’s focus on the Pacific.
The USA aims to break India’s dependence on Russian weapons and create operational harmony against China by integrating the Indian army with American systems. This process has been institutionalized through several agreements: “BECA” for intelligence sharing, ‘LEMOA’ for logistical access, and “COMCASA” for communications security. Through these agreements, the USA provides India with real-time geospatial intelligence and satellite data, expands its operational range in the Indian Ocean by using Indian ports for refueling and maintenance, and enables India to access encrypted communication devices. In this way, the USA tracks its navies against China in the Indo-Pacific via India, obtains intelligence information, and gains operational advantages. In addition, the USA strengthens India’s defense industry against China by allowing the transfer of important technologies such as jet engines and semiconductors to India.
The USA views China’s submarine fleet presence in the Indian Ocean as a major threat. Therefore, enhancing India’s submarine defense warfare capabilities is an important goal for the USA. The USA is increasing its capacity to track Chinese submarines by selling P-8I Poseidon aircraft and MQ-9B SeaGuardian UAVs to India. The Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA), established in 2025, also aims to jointly produce unmanned naval vehicles. Through these alliances, the USA and India are implementing a naval blockade that will restrict the movements of Chinese submarines.
Questioning Relations with the USA from India’s Perspective
Of course, this relationship is not without problems. The tariffs imposed during the Trump era reveal the nature of the relationship, which is based on interests. The USA is punishing India for its oil purchases from Russia and its relations with China, forcing it to side completely with the USA. For example, the high customs duties imposed on Indian goods clearly stem from India’s energy cooperation with Russia.
India refuses to be an ally of the USA, preferring instead to remain a partner. However, within this relationship, the US continues to pursue a coercive bargaining approach rather than a partnership. This also strengthens the negative perception of the USA among the Indian public.
India is the member most strongly opposed to labeling the QUAD as an “Asian NATO.” India avoids any formal military alliance structure that would directly provoke China. This is because India is the only country within the QUAD that shares an active land border with China. This situation makes India more vulnerable to direct military retaliation from China compared to the USA or other allies. Therefore, India prefers to use the QUAD as a platform for diplomatic and technological cooperation rather than a military alliance, limiting China with a “soft balancing” strategy. These strategies work if they align with India’s own aspirations to become a major power.
India continues to keep the Russia and Global South cards on the table to avoid becoming Washington’s “proxy.” India’s Indo-Pacific strategy is based on “pragmatic balancing.” While balancing China with the USA and its allies (QUAD) on one hand, it maintains its defense and energy ties with Russia on the other and seeks to preserve its strategic autonomy by participating in platforms such as BRICS.
The absence of a comprehensive trade agreement between the USA and India, coupled with unilateral strategies, is currently driving India towards trade agreements with the EU. This agreement envisions significant tariff reductions and market access facilitation in trade between the parties. The signing of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement sends a message to the USA that “you are not our only option.” Trump’s moves that upset Europe, such as his claims on Greenland and his harsh stance towards India, are creating cracks in the Transatlantic and Indo-Pacific alliances, but these cracks are being filled by the India-EU rapprochement. Both sides are trying to find common ground in a third pole, avoiding being squeezed between the USA and China.
This article was first published on the Türkiye Research Foundation’s Website on January 31, 2026.
