Given that the US and Russia are two superpower nuclear powers and the US holds global sway in many areas, including economic, technological superiority, in addition to its military might, the entire world is focused on the Trump-Putin summit on August 15. The reason for this focus is linked not only to the territorial integrity of Ukraine but also to the broader global peace environment. Can Trump’s moves establish a new peace order?

Trump’s perception of BRICS as a threat, his imposition of high tariffs on its founders, China and India, can be characterized as a direct message to his ally, Russia. At the same time, when all this is considered alongside Trump’s slogans “I will stop the wars!” and “I will bring peace!” it raises the question: Will the US bring about a New Pax Americana—similar to the relative calm period after 1990—or are these efforts signals to prevent a Pax Multipolaris (peace of multipolarity)?

What is Pax Americana?

This concept defines the international order that emerged after World War II under the economic, military and ideological leadership of the US. The fundamental pillars of this order can be briefly listed as follows: US military superiority (NATO, a global network of bases, nuclear deterrence), economic hegemony (the dollar as the reserve currency, the IMF and World Bank network) and normative leadership (liberal democracy, human rights, free trade norms).

However, since the beginning of the 21st century, the rise of powers such as China, Russia, and India has strengthened the possibility of global governance becoming multipolar. In this context, the concept of “Pax Multipolaris” emerges: a new order based on a balance formed by regional centers of power instead of a single hegemon.

Will It Evolve into “Pax Multipolaris”?

The challenge posed by China and Russia to the US has been cited as the biggest reason for this potential shift. China’s economic and institutional challenge—coming from a country that generally avoids outright political criticism of the US—is significant. This includes China surpassing the US in terms of purchasing power parity in 2014, building a global infrastructure network through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), establishing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and positioning the Yuan as a candidate for international reserve currency status. In the technological domain, China has serious ambitions, such as setting global standards in areas like 5G, artificial intelligence and the digital yuan. The recent DeepSeek incident was described as a “technological revolution.

“Russia’s interventions in Georgia (2008), Crimea (2014), Syria (2015) and Ukraine (2022) are perceived as explicit military challenges to the US-centred security architecture, confronting America’s “global monopoly.” Simultaneously, multilateral institutions and structures like BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) demonstrate actions aimed at balancing US influence.

Breaking the Monopoly is Not That Easy

According to some experts, the points listed above are important but neither sufficient nor easy. According to SIPRI, the US still accounts for approximately 40% of global defence spending, while China, ranked second, is estimated to spend less than half of what the US spends. Moreover, unlike all its potential rivals, the US possesses a global network of allies. The US maintains at least $128$ overseas military bases in more than $50$ countries worldwide. Furthermore, it is clear that the military and technological superiority and rapid advances of the US make the job of China and other potential rivals quite difficult compared to what rising powers faced in previous eras.

In the economy, breaking the US monopoly is also a desired but difficult-to-achieve task. The current “unipolar currency world” is characterised by the reliance of central banks worldwide on the US dollar as the primary reserve currency. BRICS countries have announced their intention to create an alternative BRICS currency to reduce global dollar dependence, but the path to financial multipolarity is a challenging, long, and undoubtedly contested one that will meet with US resistance.

Return to the New-Old Order

With Trump’s election in the US, the prevailing thought was that he might bring an end to Pax Americana, which was perceived as American supremacy. However, while we wondered if the US was “retreating into its shell” under the banner of “America First”, we now see Trump abruptly returning to the old order and reconsidering the US’s global role as the protector of the international order, increasing defence investments and attempting to counteract China’s continued rise.

What is Trump’s Profit?

While everyone speaks of peace when discussing the Russia-Ukraine peace, this question comes to the fore when Trump is involved. During the recent Azerbaijan-Armenia peace negotiations, we saw that Trump not only did a favour for the parties but also secured gains for the US. The credibility of his statement, “people should not die, civilians should not die,” before the meeting with Russia, is naturally questioned due to his lack of similar sensitivity when tens of thousands of Palestinians were massacred.

Russian media attribute the quick organization of the negotiation table to Russia’s successful advance on the Ukrainian front. The reason for excluding Europe and Ukraine from the process may also be linked to this. According to Trump, for now, the situation does not appear to be dependent on either actor.

On the other hand, the message that Trump, with his businessman’s logic, could make a deal with Russia was given in the critical minerals agreement he made with Ukraine, following his stance toward Zelensky. The signing of this agreement necessitates peace in Ukraine. Due to the need for the projects stipulated in the agreement to be realized, this war needs to end in the medium term; if not the short term, because then Ukraine can open its doors to American investors within the framework of the agreement Trump imposed on and ultimately obtained from Zelensky.

In summary, we are faced with the reality that Trump is demanding not just peace but peace under US leadership. Underlying the offer to Putin, “come on, let’s make a deal”, is the intent to prevent the conversion of Pax Americana to Pax Multipolaris. If an agreement is reached, Russia, sitting at the global bargaining table with the US, might abandon close cooperation with China and its other allies against the US order. If an agreement cannot be reached, the world will continue to evolve toward multipolarity, which the US does not want but is beginning to form. Of course, whether this multipolarity can bring peace and whether it will be allowed to, is another question.

This article was first published on the Türkiye Research Foundation’s Turkish website on August 15, 2025.