Baden-Württemberg is no ordinary state in German politics. It is one of the regions where Germany’s manufacturing power, exports and industrial heritage are most concentrated. The influence of giants like Mercedes-Benz, Porsche and Bosch is also strongly felt here. For this reason, an election result in this state cannot be interpreted merely as a local electoral victory. In a way, it signifies winning a vote of confidence in the economic heart of Germany. Consequently, the outcome in a critical state like Baden-Württemberg significantly impacts national politics. The 2026 elections also presented a notable picture in this context.
The Age of Personal Charisma: An Election Shaped by the Özdemir–Hagel Axis
In the March 8, 2026 election, the Greens came in first with 30.2 percent. The CDU remained at 29.7 percent. The AfD rose to 18.8 percent. The SPD, meanwhile, dropped to 5.5 percent. Ultimately, Cem Özdemir closed the gap that had seemed insurmountable in the final weeks and won the election, becoming State Premier. The primary reason for this outcome is that, in this state election, the focus was more on the candidates than on the parties. For a long time, Germany was a country where loyalty to established parties was strong. However, in recent years, we have observed that this picture is changing. Elections at both the federal and state levels are increasingly taking on a more personal character and as Germans say, the election is becoming “personalized.” This was precisely the picture that emerged in Baden-Württemberg. It wasn’t just the Greens and the CDU competing at the polls; it was Cem Özdemir versus Manuel Hagel. And in this matchup, Özdemir held a clear advantage. He was a well-known figure with years of experience in the European Parliament, the Bundestag, as co-chair of the Green Party and as a federal minister. Hagel, on the other hand was a younger, less well-known candidate who had not yet established the same level of political clout beyond the state. Reuters and AP also placed these very reasons at the heart of the outcome: what was decisive in the Greens’ success was, to a large extent, Özdemir’s personal profile.
A Pragmatic Victory: Özdemir’s Economy-Focused Strategy
The second factor was that Özdemir had structured his campaign very carefully. He did not bring the Greens’ tarnished federal record to the forefront of the Baden-Württemberg election. He did not turn the election into a contest of ideological purity. Instead, he pursued a more pragmatic strategy. In his rhetoric, he centered on industry, spoke of the economy, discussed energy costs and brought competitiveness to the forefront. He did not entirely abandon his party’s traditional talking points, but he also did not present them in a tone that would scare off voters. Just how important this was in a state centered on the automotive and related industries is clear. The campaign’s main focus was the economic squeeze, the transformation of the automotive sector and Baden-Württemberg’s industrial future. Özdemir, too, spoke by emphasizing the “economy, economy, economy” line in this atmosphere. His call to his own party on election night was precisely this: to link climate and economy in the same sentence.
There is one more important detail here. Throughout the campaign, Özdemir sidelined the Greens and positioned himself as the frontrunner. This was a very deliberate choice. Rather than telling voters to “vote for my party” he conveyed the sense that “I can govern this state.” In a place like Baden-Württemberg, where middle-class sensibilities, a desire for stability and economic rationality are strong, this approach resonated. Voters often look at the candidate themselves before the party platform. This becomes even more pronounced during times of economic uncertainty. That’s exactly what happened here. People didn’t vote based on the Greens’ entire federal agenda. Instead, they focused on whether Özdemir inspired confidence. He presented himself as a figure free from ideological rigidity, with state governance experience, not at odds with industry and not overly polarizing on issues like migration and security. This is why he garnered support from centrist voters—and even from segments that might typically lean toward the CDU under normal circumstances.
The third point was that the Greens were not starting from scratch in Baden-Württemberg. Since 2011, the state’s political balance has shifted in favor of the Greens. Behind this was the path laid out by Winfried Kretschmann. Kretschmann had adapted the classic German Green Party line to the fabric of Baden-Württemberg society. He established a line that did not clash with more conservative voters, did not alienate the Catholic social base, and pursued environmental policy without demonizing industry. Özdemir did not disrupt this line. He added his own personal energy to it. In other words, there was both a legacy and a more visible candidate to carry that legacy into the new era. A significant portion of the electorate did not view this transition as a risk. On the contrary, they saw Özdemir as the most reliable figure capable of carrying the party forward in the post-Kretschmann era.
Hagel’s Campaign-Shattering Mistakes and Lost Momentum
On the CDU side, however, things did not go as smoothly as they had hoped. Manuel Hagel appeared to be the favorite for a long time. But in the final stretch of the campaign, he lost his rhythm. While Özdemir gained momentum, Hagel found himself on the defensive on several issues. One of his most controversial statements was regarding the retirement debate. Hagel suggested that working until age 70 could become a reality for his generation and his children’s generation. Work life, the retirement age, and the welfare state are already highly sensitive issues in Germany. Even if such a statement is framed as a technical reform proposal, it comes across differently to voters. Especially when the cost of living is a hot topic and people are already struggling under the burden of energy and rent costs, such remarks easily spark backlash. And that’s exactly what happened.
On top of that, an old video of his resurfaced. The language he used while describing a female student during a school visit in 2018 sparked controversy. As reported in German news outlets, descriptions like “brown hair” and “doe-eyed” did not reflect well on Hagel during the campaign. The issue alone may not have altered the outcome of the election. But in recent weeks, it created an unnecessary burden around the candidate. Moreover, according to a YouGov survey, a significant portion of those aware of this video began to view Hagel more negatively. In elections, a single gaffe may not single-handedly tip the scales, but it disrupts the candidate’s rhythm and fosters a defensive mindset. This is partly what happened to Hagel.
The Narrowing Space of Polarization and Politics Trapped in a Two-Candidate Race
Another key factor was how polarization crushed small and medium-sized parties. The SPD’s historic decline, the FDP’s marginalization, and the AfD’s rise effectively turned the election into a two-candidate referendum. In such environments, voters act more strategically. Instead of voting for smaller parties to send a message, they turn to the candidate who will determine who forms the government. This logic held true in Baden-Württemberg. In particular, a portion of the center and center-left voters, seeing the race as a contest between Özdemir and Hagel, cast their votes accordingly. The SPD’s drop to 5.5 percent and the AfD’s rise to nearly one-fifth of the vote were among the clearest indicators of this strategic squeeze.
Ultimately, Cem Özdemir did not win this election merely by running a good campaign. He won because he used his personal popularity effectively. He won because he stepped back from his party and put himself forward. He won because he adopted a language suited to Baden-Württemberg’s industrial spirit. He won because he presented the post-Kretschmann era not as a rupture but as a controlled transition. He won because he was able to turn his opponent’s mistakes to his own advantage. And perhaps most importantly, he won because he read the new era—in which German politics is increasingly centered around individuals—better than anyone else. The Baden-Württemberg election tells us something. Voters no longer look solely at the party. They also look at who is at the wheel. In this election, the name they wanted to see at the wheel was Cem Özdemir.
This article was first published on the Türkiye Research Foundation’s Website on March 14, 2026.
