On Tuesday, September 9, Qatar once again witnessed the sounds of explosions and an unfamiliar chaos after a long hiatus. This time, the main actor was Israel, not Iran. Unlike Iran’s limited and controlled attack on the Al Udeid American Base in June, which was widely considered “showy,” this time, the sounds of explosions were heard, and smoke rose in a civilian residential area in the center of Doha. It was soon understood that Israel had carried out an operation targeting the Hamas leadership.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), in a “pinpoint” operation conducted jointly with the Shin Bet security service, announced that senior Hamas officials were targeted. However, the attack resulted in the deaths of five lower-ranking Hamas members and a Qatari police officer on duty, instead of the senior leadership as planned. It is a grave situation that Qatar, the very country mediating the ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations between the US, Israel, and Hamas, has suffered such an attack during ongoing talks.

This unprecedented attack by Israel on Qatar, a non-NATO member but a country granted “major non-NATO ally” status by the US, signifies an expansion of its military operations in the region, following Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen. Considering that approximately 11,000 American military personnel are stationed in Qatar, this development has the potential to further deepen instability not only in the Gulf but across the wider Middle East.

Questioning the US Security Umbrella

Israel’s attack is a breaking point for both Qatar and the Gulf in many respects. The fact that Israel has, for the first time, directly targeted Qatar—a country that has been actively involved as a mediator regarding Hamas for years—fundamentally shakes security perceptions in the region. The first question that comes to mind is this: If Israel can carry out an attack anywhere it wishes, is not prevented by the US, or perhaps even receives tacit approval, what is the benefit of the American security umbrella and the US bases located on the soil of Gulf countries?

Qatar, which is one of Washington’s key allies in the region and hosts the largest US base in the Middle East, recently hosted US President Donald Trump during his Gulf tour in May; the Boeing 747 model aircraft “gifted” to him led to “bribery” controversies.

However, neither good relations with the US, nor the base, nor expensive gifts could prevent Israel’s attack. Acting like a rogue state, Israel once again recklessly demonstrated to the whole world that it is prepared to cross all red lines and violate international law.

In fact, the post-October 7 process had already made it increasingly clear that the US recognizes no red lines when it comes to Israel and places Israel’s security above everything else. However, with Tuesday’s attack, the most important question the Gulf countries were already asking themselves -and will be forced to ask even more in the coming period- is whether the US is truly a security guarantor or conversely a source of insecurity, especially when Israel is involved.

The Concretization of the Israeli Threat

The attack in Qatar is perhaps the most concrete development to date that could more permanently alter the perceptions of security and threat that have been changing since October 7. In the Gulf region, where Iran has traditionally been seen as the primary threat, Israel’s transformation into an actor that can directly attack whenever it wishes, without being prevented by anyone, will undoubtedly play a role in the future development of threat perceptions.

Israel becoming such a concrete threat by directly attacking a Gulf country will be a serious test for normalization with Israel for other Gulf countries, which collectively condemned the attack on Qatar and showed strong solidarity with Doha from the very first moment. While countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, which previously normalized ties with Tel Aviv, may question whether normalization with Israel brought peace and tranquility to the region, as believed, Saudi Arabia, which has been under long-standing pressure to normalize, can be expected to close this file for a considerable time.

A Blow to the Foundations of the Gulf

The attack could also be a milestone in that it exposes the fragility of the Gulf, which is built upon the perception of peace and prosperity. Indeed, what happened in Doha today could very well happen in other Gulf capitals tomorrow. In this sense, Israel’s attack on Qatar should be considered an attack on the entire Gulf. The attack shook the foundation of security and stability upon which not only Qatar, but the entire Gulf is built. The image of the Gulf as a wealthy, safe, and stable bubble, an image it has used to define itself and present to the world, has suffered a serious blow. It has become clear that the bubble under the Western security umbrella is not as robust as previously believed, but rather extremely fragile, which will have demographic and economic repercussions for the region, which has always been seen as a center of attraction for foreigners and investments.

What happened in Doha will not be confined to Doha. Israel’s September 9 attack on Qatar is a serious breaking point that will profoundly affect the Gulf’s security architecture in the coming period.

This article was first published on the Türkiye Researh Foundation’s Turkish website on September 10, 2025.