In the history of international relations, major decisions made by great powers can change the course of the system, causing fractures in the existing order and reshaping the distribution of power. Today, we are faced with just such a decision: on the orders of USA President Donald Trump, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) carried out a covert operation to capture the head of state of a sovereign country. Will Nicolás Maduro be the subject of the next “major decision”? In this article, I will examine the events unfolding in Venezuela.
How Did the USA-Venezuela Tension Begin?
The origins of the USA-Venezuela tension, which has reached its peak today with Maduro’s capture, date back to 2019. During the presidential election held at that time, a fierce battle took place between Maduro and his opponent, Juan Guaidó, with Maduro winning by a narrow margin. However, USA President Trump accused Maduro of rigging the elections and recognized Guaidó as the interim president. In response, Maduro accused the USA of “illegally” interfering in Venezuela’s internal affairs.
In response to Maduro’s statement, the Trump administration imposed a series of embargoes on Venezuela’s oil exports. This tension continued in the form of a cold conflict until September 2025. The development that changed the situation was a report published in May 2025 by the USA Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). The report highlighted the roles of Venezuela-based gangs such as Tren de Aragua (TdA) and MS-13 in drug distribution networks within the USA, and the tension evolved into a new accusation: the fight against drugs.
Indeed, in September 2025, the USA Coast Guard targeted Venezuelan-flagged ships, sinking civilian boats and explicitly putting Venezuela and Maduro in the crosshairs. On December 21, 2025, the USA Coast Guard seized the tanker Centuries, carrying Venezuelan oil, and another ship in international waters in the Caribbean. Following this seizure operation, the USA deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford, one of the world’s largest aircraft carriers, along with its accompanying strike group, to the waters off Venezuela.
The first direct intervention took place on December 31, 2025. On the last day of the year, the CIA launched an attack with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on a port facility allegedly used for drug shipments. Following the wave of attacks centered in Caracas, between January 1 and 3, 2026, USA air assets became the de facto dominant force in Venezuelan airspace. Indeed, today Nicolás Maduro was captured in a CIA operation.
Why Did the US Target Venezuela?
The most frequently repeated concepts in press releases issued by USA officials and in statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio were “narcotics” and “combating organized crime.” Washington’s claim that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro himself is at the head of these structures is not only striking but also brings with it a legally problematic approach. According to international law, heads of state are protected by state immunity during their terms of office; prosecuting them, except for crimes against humanity, effectively means prosecuting the state itself.
Nevertheless, the USA’s offering a $50 million bounty on Maduro’s head shows that the issue cannot be explained solely by the rhetoric of fighting crime. This step evokes a show of force reminiscent of the Western films many of us watched on Saturday mornings as children, rather than modern diplomacy and international legal practice. Wanted lists, bounty announcements, and personalized language of demonization give the impression that inter-state relations are moving away from institutional ground and shifting towards a more primitive power politics.
Therefore, the fundamental question is: Is the USA really fighting drugs and organized crime, or are broader geopolitical and geoeconomic calculations at play behind the scenes, as in the case of Venezuela?
The answer may lie in the title that probably first comes to most of our minds: black gold, or otherwise known as “black death” oil. Recall that the USA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) reached its lowest level in 40 years at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, falling to approximately 347–350 million barrels by the end of 2024. This amount was the lowest recorded since 1983–1984. Experts and members of Congress defined reserves falling below 400 million barrels as an “operational risk threshold” because it left the USA vulnerable to a possible global supply disruption (war, embargo, etc.).
One of the first promises made by the second Trump administration, which took office in January 2025, was to increase these reserves to their full capacity of 714 million barrels. Despite the USA Department of Energy’s “aggressive” purchasing efforts in June 2025, the SPR could only rise above 400 million barrels. After this date, the USA’s renewed focus on Israel and Russia meant that economic tools did not provide sufficient opportunity for oil purchases.
Precisely for this reason, Trump constantly demanded that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell lower interest rates and allow American oil companies to expand their operations by borrowing more cheaply. However, these efforts were unsuccessful. The Fed’s hawkish monetary policy and the US’s foreign policy adventures prevented reserves from being replenished. According to the latest data from December 26, 2025, the SPR only reached 413.2 million barrels.
At this point, Trump’s narcotics rhetoric became a tool to legitimize military intervention in Venezuela. Venezuela, with reserves of 302 billion barrels, holds approximately 18 percent of the world’s oil and is the country with the largest oil reserves in the world.
Did Black Death Pull Maduro’s Trigger?
The answer to this question is both yes and no. The conflict the USA will face in the coming decade is much more comprehensive and structural than the short-term oil crisis it currently faces. The rival is a strategic actor as complex as it is cool-headed: China.
Since the 2008 Global Economic Crisis, the steps taken by the Beijing administration, particularly in Africa, have given China a clear advantage in the supply of rare elements that are critical for chip production and semiconductor technologies, which will be one of the key areas of competition in the next decade. Today, Africa holds approximately 30% of the world’s critical minerals. China, meanwhile, has established effective control over the vast majority of these areas. It is estimated that China also possesses 87% of the world’s refining capacity for these minerals.
Washington’s recent strategy is essentially based on an updated version of the Monroe Doctrine: keeping the Western Hemisphere closed to third powers. However, China is steadily increasing its influence in Latin America through artificial intelligence applications, surveillance technologies, and low-cost credit mechanisms. Indeed, the information that Maduro was in contact with Chinese officials in Caracas just hours before his arrest should be read in this context.
In this case, targeting Maduro cannot be explained solely by a struggle for oil or a narcotics narrative. It also carries an explicit strategic message directed at Beijing: “Touch what belongs to me, and you will pay the price.” This approach can also be seen as the first signs of a return to an updated version of the domino theory applied during the Cold War.
Conclusion
The Venezuela crisis may be more than just a single operation; it could be the start of a new chapter in the competition between major powers. This move by the US has the potential to create a chain reaction extending from Latin America to Africa. The question is no longer Maduro’s fate; it is where, to whom, and by what means the next move will come. The answer will determine the direction of the global order. The coming days could simultaneously test alliances, markets, and deterrence thresholds, permanently shaking the balance of power.
This article was first published on the Türkiye Research Foundation’s Turkish website on January 7, 2026.
